Registration Data
Pennsylvania Department of State official voter registration reports. County-level data updated weekly. Current data: June 8, 2026.
Projections
2028 registration projections use linear regression on 2016–2024 data only. We exclude pre-2016 data because the political realignment that began in 2016 represents a structural break from prior patterns.
County Quotas
Each county's quota is its share of the 814,808 net new Democratic registrants needed to reach +1,000,000. Weighted 50% by current Democratic base, 50% by mobility score (unaffiliated voter share + population growth since 2016).
ZIP-Level Allocation
ZIP-level numbers use the HUD-USPS ZIP-to-county crosswalk to map each Pennsylvania ZIP to its primary county, and the Census ACS 5-year ZCTA population estimate to size that ZIP's share of the county's quota. The split is by total population, not by Democratic registration density: a wealthy ZIP and a working-class ZIP in the same county take a share in proportion to their residents, not their voters. The result is a directional organizing cadence, not a precise per-ZIP quota. Weekly targets are computed against Pennsylvania's October 23, 2028 voter registration deadline.
Vote Model
Projected 2028 vote margins use county-level conversion rates from 2024 presidential results, trended forward using 2012–2024 data. Strong candidate scenario uses trended rates. Weak candidate scenario assumes Democratic conversion reverts to ~75%. This model predicted the actual 2024 Pennsylvania vote margin of −120,266 precisely when back-tested.
Status Categories
Counties classified by swing in Democratic registration advantage from 2016 to 2024: Alarm (severe proportional collapse), Slipping (meaningful decline), Active (organizing required — no county sits this out), Opportunity (high mobility and persuadable unaffiliated pool), Anchor (strong Democratic base, growing).