The PA
Blueprint
67 COUNTIES
2028 INITIATIVE
DashboardNo PA, No POTUSCountiesResearch
← Back to all 67 counties

York County

Central · Pennsylvania

York County is currently classified as a Slipping county, with steady erosion of the Democratic registration advantage. Democrats trail by 72,364 voters, compared to a 44,889-voter Republican advantage in 2016. To put Pennsylvania back on track for 2028, York County needs 23,073 net new Democratic registrations.

2028 Registration Quota
+23,073
Net new Democratic registrants
Dem Advantage · 2000 → 2026
2000
−37K
PEAK · 2008
−31K
NOW · 2026
−72K
Registration · The Roll
Dem registered96K
Rep registered168K
Unaffiliated Registered53K
Dem velocity (per yr)−636
Rep velocity (per yr)+2.7K
Mobility score21.5%
Pop growth (2010→2026)29.0%
Proj. Dem · 202896K
Proj. Rep · 2028181K
GAP WIDENING · Reps outpace Dems by +3.4K/yr. At this pace another +6.7K by 2028.
Retention · Voters at Risk
6,078inactive Democrats
6.33% of York's Democratic base
For context: 6,696 inactive Republicans (3.98% of R base)

Roughly 1 in 20 of York's registered Democrats is on the federal cancellation path.

Inactive voters who don't vote in two consecutive federal elections face cancellation under federal law.
Vote Model · 2024 → 2028
2024 vote margin−63K
Dem conversion (2024)92.3%
Rep conversion (2024)90.0%
Proj. 2028 · trended−88K
Proj. 2028 · weak−104K
TRENDED = post-2016 conversion drift continues · WEAK = Dem conversion falls to 75% (bad-candidate floor)
← Back to all 67 counties