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Wyoming County

NE · Pennsylvania

Wyoming County is currently classified as a Slipping county, with steady erosion of the Democratic registration advantage. Democrats trail by 6,657 voters, compared to a 4,242-voter Republican advantage in 2016. To put Pennsylvania back on track for 2028, Wyoming County needs 8,768 net new Democratic registrations.

2028 Registration Quota
+8,768
Net new Democratic registrants
Dem Advantage · 2000 → 2026
2000
−5.3K
PEAK · 2012
−3.4K
NOW · 2026
−6.7K
Registration · The Roll
Dem registered4.7K
Rep registered11K
Unaffiliated Registered1.8K
Dem velocity (per yr)−79
Rep velocity (per yr)+184
Mobility score16.5%
Pop growth (2010→2026)22.8%
Proj. Dem · 20284.5K
Proj. Rep · 202812K
GAP WIDENING · Reps outpace Dems by +263/yr. At this pace another +526 by 2028.
Retention · Voters at Risk
329inactive Democrats
7.03% of Wyoming's Democratic base
For context: 556 inactive Republicans (4.90% of R base)
Inactive voters who don't vote in two consecutive federal elections face cancellation under federal law.
Vote Model · 2024 → 2028
2024 vote margin−5.5K
Dem conversion (2024)98.0%
Rep conversion (2024)90.1%
Proj. 2028 · trended−7.5K
Proj. 2028 · weak−8.3K
TRENDED = post-2016 conversion drift continues · WEAK = Dem conversion falls to 75% (bad-candidate floor)
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