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Westmoreland County

SW · Pennsylvania

Westmoreland County is currently classified in ALARM status, reflecting a severe post-2016 registration collapse. Democrats trail by 44,018 voters, compared to a 9,729-voter Democratic advantage in 2016. To put Pennsylvania back on track for 2028, Westmoreland County needs 18,206 net new Democratic registrations.

2028 Registration Quota
+18,206
Net new Democratic registrants
Dem Advantage · 2000 → 2026
2000
+64K
PEAK · 2000
+64K
NOW · 2026
−44K
Registration · The Roll
Dem registered87K
Rep registered131K
Unaffiliated Registered24K
Dem velocity (per yr)−2.6K
Rep velocity (per yr)+3.0K
Mobility score13.5%
Pop growth (2010→2026)15.8%
Proj. Dem · 202882K
Proj. Rep · 2028142K
GAP WIDENING · Reps outpace Dems by +5.6K/yr. At this pace another +11.3K by 2028.
Retention · Voters at Risk
3,449inactive Democrats
3.97% of Westmoreland's Democratic base
For context: 3,651 inactive Republicans (2.79% of R base)
Inactive voters who don't vote in two consecutive federal elections face cancellation under federal law.
Vote Model · 2024 → 2028
2024 vote margin−60K
Dem conversion (2024)82.2%
Rep conversion (2024)102.4%
Proj. 2028 · trended−62K
Proj. 2028 · weak−76K
TRENDED = post-2016 conversion drift continues · WEAK = Dem conversion falls to 75% (bad-candidate floor)
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