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2028 INITIATIVE
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Wayne County

NE · Pennsylvania

Wayne County is currently classified as an Opportunity county, where demographic and mobility patterns favor Democratic growth. Democrats trail by 13,041 voters, compared to a 7,964-voter Republican advantage in 2016. To put Pennsylvania back on track for 2028, Wayne County needs 11,962 net new Democratic registrations.

2028 Registration Quota
+11,962
Net new Democratic registrants
Dem Advantage · 2000 → 2026
2000
−8.9K
PEAK · 2008
−6.6K
NOW · 2026
−13K
Registration · The Roll
Dem registered8.7K
Rep registered22K
Unaffiliated Registered5.1K
Dem velocity (per yr)−120
Rep velocity (per yr)+419
Mobility score21.8%
Pop growth (2010→2026)30.8%
Proj. Dem · 20288.8K
Proj. Rep · 202823K
GAP WIDENING · Reps outpace Dems by +539/yr. At this pace another +1.1K by 2028.
Retention · Voters at Risk
730inactive Democrats
8.41% of Wayne's Democratic base
For context: 1,220 inactive Republicans (5.62% of R base)
Inactive voters who don't vote in two consecutive federal elections face cancellation under federal law.
Vote Model · 2024 → 2028
2024 vote margin−11K
Dem conversion (2024)98.8%
Rep conversion (2024)91.5%
Proj. 2028 · trended−15K
Proj. 2028 · weak−16K
TRENDED = post-2016 conversion drift continues · WEAK = Dem conversion falls to 75% (bad-candidate floor)
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