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Washington County

SW · Pennsylvania

Washington County is currently classified in ALARM status, reflecting a severe post-2016 registration collapse. Democrats trail by 20,073 voters, compared to a 12,719-voter Democratic advantage in 2016. To put Pennsylvania back on track for 2028, Washington County needs 14,424 net new Democratic registrations.

2028 Registration Quota
+14,424
Net new Democratic registrants
Dem Advantage · 2000 → 2026
2000
+45K
PEAK · 2000
+45K
NOW · 2026
−20K
Registration · The Roll
Dem registered53K
Rep registered73K
Unaffiliated Registered16K
Dem velocity (per yr)−1.5K
Rep velocity (per yr)+1.9K
Mobility score14.9%
Pop growth (2010→2026)18.7%
Proj. Dem · 202851K
Proj. Rep · 202880K
GAP WIDENING · Reps outpace Dems by +3.4K/yr. At this pace another +6.9K by 2028.
Retention · Voters at Risk
3,668inactive Democrats
6.94% of Washington's Democratic base
For context: 3,382 inactive Republicans (4.64% of R base)
Inactive voters who don't vote in two consecutive federal elections face cancellation under federal law.
Vote Model · 2024 → 2028
2024 vote margin−31K
Dem conversion (2024)80.3%
Rep conversion (2024)103.4%
Proj. 2028 · trended−31K
Proj. 2028 · weak−39K
TRENDED = post-2016 conversion drift continues · WEAK = Dem conversion falls to 75% (bad-candidate floor)
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