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2028 INITIATIVE
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Venango County

NW · Pennsylvania

Venango County is currently classified in ALARM status, reflecting a severe post-2016 registration collapse. Democrats trail by 12,122 voters, compared to a 6,435-voter Republican advantage in 2016. To put Pennsylvania back on track for 2028, Venango County needs 8,053 net new Democratic registrations.

2028 Registration Quota
+8,053
Net new Democratic registrants
Dem Advantage · 2000 → 2026
2000
−5.1K
PEAK · 2008
−4.3K
NOW · 2026
−12K
Registration · The Roll
Dem registered8.1K
Rep registered20K
Unaffiliated Registered3.4K
Dem velocity (per yr)−290
Rep velocity (per yr)+296
Mobility score14.1%
Pop growth (2010→2026)15.6%
Proj. Dem · 20287.5K
Proj. Rep · 202821K
GAP WIDENING · Reps outpace Dems by +586/yr. At this pace another +1.2K by 2028.
Retention · Voters at Risk
368inactive Democrats
4.57% of Venango's Democratic base
For context: 611 inactive Republicans (3.03% of R base)
Inactive voters who don't vote in two consecutive federal elections face cancellation under federal law.
Vote Model · 2024 → 2028
2024 vote margin−11K
Dem conversion (2024)89.5%
Rep conversion (2024)93.3%
Proj. 2028 · trended−14K
Proj. 2028 · weak−15K
TRENDED = post-2016 conversion drift continues · WEAK = Dem conversion falls to 75% (bad-candidate floor)
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