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2028 INITIATIVE
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Union County

Central · Pennsylvania

Union County is currently classified as an Opportunity county, where demographic and mobility patterns favor Democratic growth. Democrats trail by 6,647 voters, compared to a 5,285-voter Republican advantage in 2016. To put Pennsylvania back on track for 2028, Union County needs 12,481 net new Democratic registrations.

2028 Registration Quota
+12,481
Net new Democratic registrants
Dem Advantage · 2000 → 2026
2000
−6.3K
PEAK · 2008
−4.7K
NOW · 2026
−6.6K
Registration · The Roll
Dem registered7.8K
Rep registered14K
Unaffiliated Registered3.2K
Dem velocity (per yr)+54
Rep velocity (per yr)+208
Mobility score23.1%
Pop growth (2010→2026)33.6%
Proj. Dem · 20288.3K
Proj. Rep · 202816K
GAP WIDENING · Reps outpace Dems by +154/yr. At this pace another +308 by 2028.
Retention · Voters at Risk
705inactive Democrats
9.09% of Union's Democratic base
For context: 631 inactive Republicans (4.38% of R base)
Inactive voters who don't vote in two consecutive federal elections face cancellation under federal law.
Vote Model · 2024 → 2028
2024 vote margin−5.0K
Dem conversion (2024)96.8%
Rep conversion (2024)87.5%
Proj. 2028 · trended−7.5K
Proj. 2028 · weak−8.8K
TRENDED = post-2016 conversion drift continues · WEAK = Dem conversion falls to 75% (bad-candidate floor)
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