The PA
Blueprint
Blueprint
67 COUNTIES
2028 INITIATIVE
2028 INITIATIVE
Tioga County
NCentral · Pennsylvania
Tioga County is currently classified as a Slipping county, with steady erosion of the Democratic registration advantage. Democrats trail by 13,188 voters, compared to a 8,709-voter Republican advantage in 2016. To put Pennsylvania back on track for 2028, Tioga County needs 7,832 net new Democratic registrations.
2028 Registration Quota
+7,832
Net new Democratic registrants
Dem Advantage · 2000 → 2026
2000
−9.1K
PEAK · 2012
−7.6K
NOW · 2026
−13K
Registration · The Roll
Dem registered4.9K
Rep registered18K
Unaffiliated Registered2.9K
Dem velocity (per yr)−217
Rep velocity (per yr)+265
Mobility score14.5%
Pop growth (2010→2026)17.0%
Proj. Dem · 20284.5K
Proj. Rep · 202819K
GAP WIDENING · Reps outpace Dems by +482/yr. At this pace another +964 by 2028.
Retention · Voters at Risk
224inactive Democrats
4.55% of Tioga's Democratic base
For context: 562 inactive Republicans (3.10% of R base)
Inactive voters who don't vote in two consecutive federal elections face cancellation under federal law.
Vote Model · 2024 → 2028
2024 vote margin−11K
Dem conversion (2024)97.8%
Rep conversion (2024)88.8%
Proj. 2028 · trended−15K
Proj. 2028 · weak−15K
TRENDED = post-2016 conversion drift continues · WEAK = Dem conversion falls to 75% (bad-candidate floor)
⚠ TAKE ACTION
4 things you can do today
01Register or update your registration
If you're not registered Democrat in PA, start there. 2 minutes at the official portal.
PA Voter Services →
02Volunteer in Tioga County
Tioga needs 7,832 net new Democratic registrants. That doesn't happen behind a screen.
Find opportunities →
03Contact Tioga County Dems
The county committee is the unit responsible for this quota. Attend a meeting. Run for Precinct Captain.
Tioga Dems →
04Convert unaffiliated voters
Tioga has 2,918 unaffiliated voters (12.8% of the rolls) — already registered, mostly via DMV. They can switch in 2 minutes. They just need a reason.
Party switch form →
The slide is not inevitable. Organize now.
TIOGA QUOTA: +7,832 · STATEWIDE: +1,000,000 BY 2028