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2028 INITIATIVE
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Susquehanna County

NE · Pennsylvania

Susquehanna County is currently classified as a Slipping county, with steady erosion of the Democratic registration advantage. Democrats trail by 11,311 voters, compared to a 6,967-voter Republican advantage in 2016. To put Pennsylvania back on track for 2028, Susquehanna County needs 9,025 net new Democratic registrations.

2028 Registration Quota
+9,025
Net new Democratic registrants
Dem Advantage · 2000 → 2026
2000
−6.8K
PEAK · 2008
−5.4K
NOW · 2026
−11K
Registration · The Roll
Dem registered6.3K
Rep registered18K
Unaffiliated Registered2.9K
Dem velocity (per yr)−187
Rep velocity (per yr)+268
Mobility score16.6%
Pop growth (2010→2026)20.4%
Proj. Dem · 20285.8K
Proj. Rep · 202818K
GAP WIDENING · Reps outpace Dems by +455/yr. At this pace another +910 by 2028.
Retention · Voters at Risk
515inactive Democrats
8.23% of Susquehanna's Democratic base
For context: 880 inactive Republicans (5.01% of R base)
Inactive voters who don't vote in two consecutive federal elections face cancellation under federal law.
Vote Model · 2024 → 2028
2024 vote margin−10K
Dem conversion (2024)94.9%
Rep conversion (2024)92.4%
Proj. 2028 · trended−13K
Proj. 2028 · weak−13K
TRENDED = post-2016 conversion drift continues · WEAK = Dem conversion falls to 75% (bad-candidate floor)
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