The PA
Blueprint
67 COUNTIES
2028 INITIATIVE
DashboardNo PA, No POTUSCountiesResearch
← Back to all 67 counties

Sullivan County

NE · Pennsylvania

Sullivan County is currently classified as an Active county, requiring organizing work to hold ground. Democrats trail by 1,782 voters, compared to a 896-voter Republican advantage in 2016. To put Pennsylvania back on track for 2028, Sullivan County needs 6,578 net new Democratic registrations.

2028 Registration Quota
+6,578
Net new Democratic registrants
Dem Advantage · 2000 → 2026
2000
−858
PEAK · 2008
−638
NOW · 2026
−1.8K
Registration · The Roll
Dem registered1.1K
Rep registered2.8K
Unaffiliated Registered371
Dem velocity (per yr)−42
Rep velocity (per yr)+51
Mobility score13.0%
Pop growth (2010→2026)15.0%
Proj. Dem · 2028997
Proj. Rep · 20283.0K
GAP WIDENING · Reps outpace Dems by +93/yr. At this pace another +186 by 2028.
Retention · Voters at Risk
37inactive Democrats
3.48% of Sullivan's Democratic base
For context: 65 inactive Republicans (2.28% of R base)
Inactive voters who don't vote in two consecutive federal elections face cancellation under federal law.
Vote Model · 2024 → 2028
2024 vote margin−1.7K
Dem conversion (2024)85.1%
Rep conversion (2024)94.7%
Proj. 2028 · trended−2.0K
Proj. 2028 · weak−2.2K
TRENDED = post-2016 conversion drift continues · WEAK = Dem conversion falls to 75% (bad-candidate floor)
← Back to all 67 counties