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2028 INITIATIVE
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Somerset County

SW · Pennsylvania

Somerset County is currently classified in ALARM status, reflecting a severe post-2016 registration collapse. Democrats trail by 22,319 voters, compared to a 9,752-voter Republican advantage in 2016. To put Pennsylvania back on track for 2028, Somerset County needs 6,682 net new Democratic registrations.

2028 Registration Quota
+6,682
Net new Democratic registrants
Dem Advantage · 2000 → 2026
2000
−2.2K
PEAK · 2000
−2.2K
NOW · 2026
−22K
Registration · The Roll
Dem registered11K
Rep registered33K
Unaffiliated Registered4.3K
Dem velocity (per yr)−667
Rep velocity (per yr)+645
Mobility score10.6%
Pop growth (2010→2026)10.9%
Proj. Dem · 20289.1K
Proj. Rep · 202835K
GAP WIDENING · Reps outpace Dems by +1.3K/yr. At this pace another +2.6K by 2028.
Retention · Voters at Risk
391inactive Democrats
3.72% of Somerset's Democratic base
For context: 633 inactive Republicans (1.93% of R base)
Inactive voters who don't vote in two consecutive federal elections face cancellation under federal law.
Vote Model · 2024 → 2028
2024 vote margin−23K
Dem conversion (2024)75.4%
Rep conversion (2024)96.2%
Proj. 2028 · trended−26K
Proj. 2028 · weak−28K
TRENDED = post-2016 conversion drift continues · WEAK = Dem conversion falls to 75% (bad-candidate floor)
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