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2028 INITIATIVE
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Snyder County

Central · Pennsylvania

Snyder County is currently classified as a Slipping county, with steady erosion of the Democratic registration advantage. Democrats trail by 11,070 voters, compared to a 8,276-voter Republican advantage in 2016. To put Pennsylvania back on track for 2028, Snyder County needs 8,894 net new Democratic registrations.

2028 Registration Quota
+8,894
Net new Democratic registrants
Dem Advantage · 2000 → 2026
2000
−8.2K
PEAK · 2012
−7.7K
NOW · 2026
−11K
Registration · The Roll
Dem registered4.9K
Rep registered16K
Unaffiliated Registered2.3K
Dem velocity (per yr)−77
Rep velocity (per yr)+243
Mobility score16.7%
Pop growth (2010→2026)23.6%
Proj. Dem · 20284.7K
Proj. Rep · 202817K
GAP WIDENING · Reps outpace Dems by +320/yr. At this pace another +640 by 2028.
Retention · Voters at Risk
324inactive Democrats
6.63% of Snyder's Democratic base
For context: 435 inactive Republicans (2.73% of R base)
Inactive voters who don't vote in two consecutive federal elections face cancellation under federal law.
Vote Model · 2024 → 2028
2024 vote margin−9.4K
Dem conversion (2024)104.8%
Rep conversion (2024)91.0%
Proj. 2028 · trended−12K
Proj. 2028 · weak−13K
TRENDED = post-2016 conversion drift continues · WEAK = Dem conversion falls to 75% (bad-candidate floor)
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