The PA
Blueprint
67 COUNTIES
2028 INITIATIVE
DashboardNo PA, No POTUSCountiesResearch
← Back to all 67 counties

Schuylkill County

NE · Pennsylvania

Schuylkill County is currently classified in ALARM status, reflecting a severe post-2016 registration collapse. Democrats trail by 27,810 voters, compared to a 10,150-voter Republican advantage in 2016. To put Pennsylvania back on track for 2028, Schuylkill County needs 10,729 net new Democratic registrations.

2028 Registration Quota
+10,729
Net new Democratic registrants
Dem Advantage · 2000 → 2026
2000
−11K
PEAK · 2012
−4.3K
NOW · 2026
−28K
Registration · The Roll
Dem registered25K
Rep registered53K
Unaffiliated Registered9.9K
Dem velocity (per yr)−825
Rep velocity (per yr)+982
Mobility score14.9%
Pop growth (2010→2026)17.4%
Proj. Dem · 202824K
Proj. Rep · 202856K
GAP WIDENING · Reps outpace Dems by +1.8K/yr. At this pace another +3.6K by 2028.
Retention · Voters at Risk
1,783inactive Democrats
7.04% of Schuylkill's Democratic base
For context: 2,192 inactive Republicans (4.12% of R base)
Inactive voters who don't vote in two consecutive federal elections face cancellation under federal law.
Vote Model · 2024 → 2028
2024 vote margin−31K
Dem conversion (2024)78.3%
Rep conversion (2024)97.7%
Proj. 2028 · trended−33K
Proj. 2028 · weak−37K
TRENDED = post-2016 conversion drift continues · WEAK = Dem conversion falls to 75% (bad-candidate floor)
← Back to all 67 counties