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2028 INITIATIVE
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Potter County

NCentral · Pennsylvania

Potter County is currently classified as a Slipping county, with steady erosion of the Democratic registration advantage. Democrats trail by 6,286 voters, compared to a 4,207-voter Republican advantage in 2016. To put Pennsylvania back on track for 2028, Potter County needs 6,221 net new Democratic registrations.

2028 Registration Quota
+6,221
Net new Democratic registrants
Dem Advantage · 2000 → 2026
2000
−3.4K
PEAK · 2008
−3.2K
NOW · 2026
−6.3K
Registration · The Roll
Dem registered1.7K
Rep registered8.0K
Unaffiliated Registered989
Dem velocity (per yr)−109
Rep velocity (per yr)+122
Mobility score12.1%
Pop growth (2010→2026)13.9%
Proj. Dem · 20281.5K
Proj. Rep · 20288.6K
GAP WIDENING · Reps outpace Dems by +231/yr. At this pace another +462 by 2028.
Retention · Voters at Risk
89inactive Democrats
5.11% of Potter's Democratic base
For context: 276 inactive Republicans (3.44% of R base)
Inactive voters who don't vote in two consecutive federal elections face cancellation under federal law.
Vote Model · 2024 → 2028
2024 vote margin−5.7K
Dem conversion (2024)90.8%
Rep conversion (2024)89.8%
Proj. 2028 · trended−7.0K
Proj. 2028 · weak−7.2K
TRENDED = post-2016 conversion drift continues · WEAK = Dem conversion falls to 75% (bad-candidate floor)
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