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2028 INITIATIVE
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Pike County

NE · Pennsylvania

Pike County is currently classified as an Opportunity county, where demographic and mobility patterns favor Democratic growth. Democrats trail by 9,414 voters, compared to a 3,830-voter Republican advantage in 2016. To put Pennsylvania back on track for 2028, Pike County needs 17,326 net new Democratic registrations.

2028 Registration Quota
+17,326
Net new Democratic registrants
Dem Advantage · 2000 → 2026
2000
−5.2K
PEAK · 2012
−2.4K
NOW · 2026
−9.4K
Registration · The Roll
Dem registered14K
Rep registered23K
Unaffiliated Registered8.4K
Dem velocity (per yr)−35
Rep velocity (per yr)+558
Mobility score31.4%
Pop growth (2010→2026)47.0%
Proj. Dem · 202814K
Proj. Rep · 202825K
GAP WIDENING · Reps outpace Dems by +593/yr. At this pace another +1.2K by 2028.
Retention · Voters at Risk
1,038inactive Democrats
7.65% of Pike's Democratic base
For context: 1,208 inactive Republicans (5.25% of R base)
Inactive voters who don't vote in two consecutive federal elections face cancellation under federal law.
Vote Model · 2024 → 2028
2024 vote margin−8.4K
Dem conversion (2024)93.0%
Rep conversion (2024)94.3%
Proj. 2028 · trended−11K
Proj. 2028 · weak−13K
TRENDED = post-2016 conversion drift continues · WEAK = Dem conversion falls to 75% (bad-candidate floor)
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