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2028 INITIATIVE
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Perry County

Central · Pennsylvania

Perry County is currently classified as a Slipping county, with steady erosion of the Democratic registration advantage. Democrats trail by 15,004 voters, compared to a 10,868-voter Republican advantage in 2016. To put Pennsylvania back on track for 2028, Perry County needs 9,040 net new Democratic registrations.

2028 Registration Quota
+9,040
Net new Democratic registrants
Dem Advantage · 2000 → 2026
2000
−8.8K
PEAK · 2000
−8.8K
NOW · 2026
−15K
Registration · The Roll
Dem registered6.0K
Rep registered21K
Unaffiliated Registered3.4K
Dem velocity (per yr)−122
Rep velocity (per yr)+338
Mobility score16.7%
Pop growth (2010→2026)23.3%
Proj. Dem · 20285.7K
Proj. Rep · 202822K
GAP WIDENING · Reps outpace Dems by +460/yr. At this pace another +920 by 2028.
Retention · Voters at Risk
136inactive Democrats
2.27% of Perry's Democratic base
For context: 338 inactive Republicans (1.61% of R base)
Inactive voters who don't vote in two consecutive federal elections face cancellation under federal law.
Vote Model · 2024 → 2028
2024 vote margin−13K
Dem conversion (2024)104.0%
Rep conversion (2024)90.5%
Proj. 2028 · trended−16K
Proj. 2028 · weak−17K
TRENDED = post-2016 conversion drift continues · WEAK = Dem conversion falls to 75% (bad-candidate floor)
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