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Northumberland County

Central · Pennsylvania

Northumberland County is currently classified in ALARM status, reflecting a severe post-2016 registration collapse. Democrats trail by 16,632 voters, compared to a 5,967-voter Republican advantage in 2016. To put Pennsylvania back on track for 2028, Northumberland County needs 9,629 net new Democratic registrations.

2028 Registration Quota
+9,629
Net new Democratic registrants
Dem Advantage · 2000 → 2026
2000
+436
PEAK · 2000
+436
NOW · 2026
−17K
Registration · The Roll
Dem registered15K
Rep registered32K
Unaffiliated Registered5.8K
Dem velocity (per yr)−613
Rep velocity (per yr)+535
Mobility score15.3%
Pop growth (2010→2026)15.9%
Proj. Dem · 202814K
Proj. Rep · 202834K
GAP WIDENING · Reps outpace Dems by +1.1K/yr. At this pace another +2.3K by 2028.
Retention · Voters at Risk
1,101inactive Democrats
7.19% of Northumberland's Democratic base
For context: 1,434 inactive Republicans (4.49% of R base)
Inactive voters who don't vote in two consecutive federal elections face cancellation under federal law.
Vote Model · 2024 → 2028
2024 vote margin−17K
Dem conversion (2024)78.6%
Rep conversion (2024)92.8%
Proj. 2028 · trended−20K
Proj. 2028 · weak−23K
TRENDED = post-2016 conversion drift continues · WEAK = Dem conversion falls to 75% (bad-candidate floor)
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NORTHUMBERLAND QUOTA: +9,629 · STATEWIDE: +1,000,000 BY 2028
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