The PA
Blueprint
67 COUNTIES
2028 INITIATIVE
DashboardNo PA, No POTUSCountiesResearch
← Back to all 67 counties

Northampton County

NE · Pennsylvania

Northampton County is currently classified as an Opportunity county, where demographic and mobility patterns favor Democratic growth. Democrats lead by 8,676 voters, compared to a 25,602-voter Democratic advantage in 2016. To put Pennsylvania back on track for 2028, Northampton County needs 25,396 net new Democratic registrations.

2028 Registration Quota
+25,396
Net new Democratic registrants
Dem Advantage · 2000 → 2026
2000
+16K
PEAK · 2008
+34K
NOW · 2026
+8.7K
Registration · The Roll
Dem registered96K
Rep registered87K
Unaffiliated Registered39K
Dem velocity (per yr)−103
Rep velocity (per yr)+1.6K
Mobility score25.4%
Pop growth (2010→2026)34.4%
Proj. Dem · 202899K
Proj. Rep · 202893K
GAP WIDENING · Reps outpace Dems by +1.7K/yr. At this pace another +3.3K by 2028.
Retention · Voters at Risk
6,407inactive Democrats
6.70% of Northampton's Democratic base
For context: 3,804 inactive Republicans (4.38% of R base)

Roughly 1 in 20 of Northampton's registered Democrats is on the federal cancellation path.

Inactive voters who don't vote in two consecutive federal elections face cancellation under federal law.
Vote Model · 2024 → 2028
2024 vote margin−3.2K
Dem conversion (2024)86.9%
Rep conversion (2024)102.4%
Proj. 2028 · trended+728
Proj. 2028 · weak−16K
TRENDED = post-2016 conversion drift continues · WEAK = Dem conversion falls to 75% (bad-candidate floor)
← Back to all 67 counties