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2028 INITIATIVE
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Montour County

Central · Pennsylvania

Montour County is currently classified as an Active county, requiring organizing work to hold ground. Democrats trail by 2,806 voters, compared to a 1,553-voter Republican advantage in 2016. To put Pennsylvania back on track for 2028, Montour County needs 7,668 net new Democratic registrations.

2028 Registration Quota
+7,668
Net new Democratic registrants
Dem Advantage · 2000 → 2026
2000
−1.1K
PEAK · 2008
−873
NOW · 2026
−2.8K
Registration · The Roll
Dem registered3.8K
Rep registered6.6K
Unaffiliated Registered1.6K
Dem velocity (per yr)−111
Rep velocity (per yr)+37
Mobility score14.5%
Pop growth (2010→2026)13.1%
Proj. Dem · 20283.6K
Proj. Rep · 20286.9K
GAP WIDENING · Reps outpace Dems by +148/yr. At this pace another +296 by 2028.
Retention · Voters at Risk
193inactive Democrats
5.13% of Montour's Democratic base
For context: 204 inactive Republicans (3.11% of R base)
Inactive voters who don't vote in two consecutive federal elections face cancellation under federal law.
Vote Model · 2024 → 2028
2024 vote margin−2.1K
Dem conversion (2024)99.0%
Rep conversion (2024)88.8%
Proj. 2028 · trended−3.4K
Proj. 2028 · weak−4.0K
TRENDED = post-2016 conversion drift continues · WEAK = Dem conversion falls to 75% (bad-candidate floor)
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