The PA
Blueprint
67 COUNTIES
2028 INITIATIVE
DashboardNo PA, No POTUSCountiesResearch
← Back to all 67 counties

Montgomery County

SE · Pennsylvania

Montgomery County is currently classified as an Anchor county — a stronghold that must be defended. Democrats lead by 96,504 voters, compared to a 56,510-voter Democratic advantage in 2016. To put Pennsylvania back on track for 2028, Montgomery County needs 49,601 net new Democratic registrations.

2028 Registration Quota
+49,601
Net new Democratic registrants
Dem Advantage · 2000 → 2026
2000
−99K
PEAK · 2024
+96K
NOW · 2026
+97K
Registration · The Roll
Dem registered305K
Rep registered208K
Unaffiliated Registered83K
Dem velocity (per yr)+3.3K
Rep velocity (per yr)−171
Mobility score20.4%
Pop growth (2010→2026)26.4%
Proj. Dem · 2028319K
Proj. Rep · 2028213K
Retention · Voters at Risk
17,511inactive Democrats
5.75% of Montgomery's Democratic base
For context: 9,347 inactive Republicans (4.49% of R base)

Roughly 1 in 20 of Montgomery's registered Democrats is on the federal cancellation path.

Inactive voters who don't vote in two consecutive federal elections face cancellation under federal law.
Vote Model · 2024 → 2028
2024 vote margin+119K
Dem conversion (2024)101.9%
Rep conversion (2024)92.3%
Proj. 2028 · trended+85K
Proj. 2028 · weak+33K
TRENDED = post-2016 conversion drift continues · WEAK = Dem conversion falls to 75% (bad-candidate floor)
← Back to all 67 counties