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Monroe County

NE · Pennsylvania

Monroe County is currently classified as an Opportunity county, where demographic and mobility patterns favor Democratic growth. Democrats lead by 5,170 voters, compared to a 15,545-voter Democratic advantage in 2016. To put Pennsylvania back on track for 2028, Monroe County needs 18,914 net new Democratic registrations.

2028 Registration Quota
+18,914
Net new Democratic registrants
Dem Advantage · 2000 → 2026
2000
−1.8K
PEAK · 2012
+17K
NOW · 2026
+5.2K
Registration · The Roll
Dem registered48K
Rep registered43K
Unaffiliated Registered20K
Dem velocity (per yr)−216
Rep velocity (per yr)+821
Mobility score25.0%
Pop growth (2010→2026)33.3%
Proj. Dem · 202851K
Proj. Rep · 202847K
GAP WIDENING · Reps outpace Dems by +1.0K/yr. At this pace another +2.1K by 2028.
Retention · Voters at Risk
5,825inactive Democrats
12.03% of Monroe's Democratic base
For context: 3,251 inactive Republicans (7.52% of R base)

More than 1 in 10 of Monroe's registered Democrats is on the federal cancellation path.

Inactive voters who don't vote in two consecutive federal elections face cancellation under federal law.
Vote Model · 2024 → 2028
2024 vote margin−669
Dem conversion (2024)81.9%
Rep conversion (2024)97.7%
Proj. 2028 · trended+1.1K
Proj. 2028 · weak−7.2K
TRENDED = post-2016 conversion drift continues · WEAK = Dem conversion falls to 75% (bad-candidate floor)
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