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2028 INITIATIVE
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Mifflin County

Central · Pennsylvania

Mifflin County is currently classified as a Slipping county, with steady erosion of the Democratic registration advantage. Democrats trail by 13,276 voters, compared to a 7,960-voter Republican advantage in 2016. To put Pennsylvania back on track for 2028, Mifflin County needs 6,980 net new Democratic registrations.

2028 Registration Quota
+6,980
Net new Democratic registrants
Dem Advantage · 2000 → 2026
2000
−4.2K
PEAK · 2000
−4.2K
NOW · 2026
−13K
Registration · The Roll
Dem registered5.4K
Rep registered19K
Unaffiliated Registered2.5K
Dem velocity (per yr)−237
Rep velocity (per yr)+316
Mobility score12.7%
Pop growth (2010→2026)16.1%
Proj. Dem · 20284.7K
Proj. Rep · 202820K
GAP WIDENING · Reps outpace Dems by +553/yr. At this pace another +1.1K by 2028.
Retention · Voters at Risk
291inactive Democrats
5.42% of Mifflin's Democratic base
For context: 583 inactive Republicans (3.13% of R base)
Inactive voters who don't vote in two consecutive federal elections face cancellation under federal law.
Vote Model · 2024 → 2028
2024 vote margin−12K
Dem conversion (2024)85.8%
Rep conversion (2024)92.6%
Proj. 2028 · trended−15K
Proj. 2028 · weak−16K
TRENDED = post-2016 conversion drift continues · WEAK = Dem conversion falls to 75% (bad-candidate floor)
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