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McKean County

NW · Pennsylvania

McKean County is currently classified as a Slipping county, with steady erosion of the Democratic registration advantage. Democrats trail by 10,881 voters, compared to a 6,886-voter Republican advantage in 2016. To put Pennsylvania back on track for 2028, McKean County needs 8,975 net new Democratic registrations.

2028 Registration Quota
+8,975
Net new Democratic registrants
Dem Advantage · 2000 → 2026
2000
−7.6K
PEAK · 2012
−6.1K
NOW · 2026
−11K
Registration · The Roll
Dem registered5.3K
Rep registered16K
Unaffiliated Registered2.7K
Dem velocity (per yr)−192
Rep velocity (per yr)+227
Mobility score16.7%
Pop growth (2010→2026)19.7%
Proj. Dem · 20285.0K
Proj. Rep · 202817K
GAP WIDENING · Reps outpace Dems by +419/yr. At this pace another +838 by 2028.
Retention · Voters at Risk
300inactive Democrats
5.68% of McKean's Democratic base
For context: 597 inactive Republicans (3.69% of R base)
Inactive voters who don't vote in two consecutive federal elections face cancellation under federal law.
Vote Model · 2024 → 2028
2024 vote margin−9.3K
Dem conversion (2024)90.8%
Rep conversion (2024)88.1%
Proj. 2028 · trended−12K
Proj. 2028 · weak−13K
TRENDED = post-2016 conversion drift continues · WEAK = Dem conversion falls to 75% (bad-candidate floor)
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