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2028 INITIATIVE
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Luzerne County

NE · Pennsylvania

Luzerne County is currently classified in ALARM status, reflecting a severe post-2016 registration collapse. Democrats trail by 7,094 voters, compared to a 33,939-voter Democratic advantage in 2016. To put Pennsylvania back on track for 2028, Luzerne County needs 17,863 net new Democratic registrations.

2028 Registration Quota
+17,863
Net new Democratic registrants
Dem Advantage · 2000 → 2026
2000
+42K
PEAK · 2008
+50K
NOW · 2026
−7.1K
Registration · The Roll
Dem registered84K
Rep registered91K
Unaffiliated Registered25K
Dem velocity (per yr)−2.4K
Rep velocity (per yr)+1.8K
Mobility score13.2%
Pop growth (2010→2026)13.3%
Proj. Dem · 202882K
Proj. Rep · 202898K
GAP WIDENING · Reps outpace Dems by +4.2K/yr. At this pace another +8.4K by 2028.
Retention · Voters at Risk
4,672inactive Democrats
5.55% of Luzerne's Democratic base
For context: 3,383 inactive Republicans (3.71% of R base)
Inactive voters who don't vote in two consecutive federal elections face cancellation under federal law.
Vote Model · 2024 → 2028
2024 vote margin−30K
Dem conversion (2024)70.4%
Rep conversion (2024)101.1%
Proj. 2028 · trended−20K
Proj. 2028 · weak−33K
TRENDED = post-2016 conversion drift continues · WEAK = Dem conversion falls to 75% (bad-candidate floor)
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