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2028 INITIATIVE
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Lehigh County

NE · Pennsylvania

Lehigh County is currently classified as an Opportunity county, where demographic and mobility patterns favor Democratic growth. Democrats lead by 21,202 voters, compared to a 35,122-voter Democratic advantage in 2016. To put Pennsylvania back on track for 2028, Lehigh County needs 25,576 net new Democratic registrations.

2028 Registration Quota
+25,576
Net new Democratic registrants
Dem Advantage · 2000 → 2026
2000
+4.1K
PEAK · 2012
+36K
NOW · 2026
+21K
Registration · The Roll
Dem registered111K
Rep registered90K
Unaffiliated Registered45K
Dem velocity (per yr)−505
Rep velocity (per yr)+1.2K
Mobility score22.6%
Pop growth (2010→2026)27.8%
Proj. Dem · 2028112K
Proj. Rep · 202896K
GAP WIDENING · Reps outpace Dems by +1.7K/yr. At this pace another +3.5K by 2028.
Retention · Voters at Risk
6,992inactive Democrats
6.30% of Lehigh's Democratic base
For context: 3,418 inactive Republicans (3.81% of R base)

Roughly 1 in 20 of Lehigh's registered Democrats is on the federal cancellation path.

Inactive voters who don't vote in two consecutive federal elections face cancellation under federal law.
Vote Model · 2024 → 2028
2024 vote margin+5.1K
Dem conversion (2024)83.5%
Rep conversion (2024)99.6%
Proj. 2028 · trended+9.7K
Proj. 2028 · weak−8.7K
TRENDED = post-2016 conversion drift continues · WEAK = Dem conversion falls to 75% (bad-candidate floor)
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