The PA
Blueprint
Blueprint
67 COUNTIES
2028 INITIATIVE
2028 INITIATIVE
Lawrence County
SW · Pennsylvania
Lawrence County is currently classified in ALARM status, reflecting a severe post-2016 registration collapse. Democrats trail by 10,461 voters, compared to a 4,148-voter Democratic advantage in 2016. To put Pennsylvania back on track for 2028, Lawrence County needs 9,067 net new Democratic registrations.
2028 Registration Quota
+9,067
Net new Democratic registrants
Dem Advantage · 2000 → 2026
2000
+12K
PEAK · 2008
+12K
NOW · 2026
−10K
Registration · The Roll
Dem registered20K
Rep registered30K
Unaffiliated Registered5.6K
Dem velocity (per yr)−752
Rep velocity (per yr)+746
Mobility score13.0%
Pop growth (2010→2026)13.8%
Proj. Dem · 202818K
Proj. Rep · 202832K
GAP WIDENING · Reps outpace Dems by +1.5K/yr. At this pace another +3.0K by 2028.
Retention · Voters at Risk
983inactive Democrats
4.98% of Lawrence's Democratic base
For context: 904 inactive Republicans (2.99% of R base)
Inactive voters who don't vote in two consecutive federal elections face cancellation under federal law.
Vote Model · 2024 → 2028
2024 vote margin−16K
Dem conversion (2024)74.0%
Rep conversion (2024)104.0%
Proj. 2028 · trended−15K
Proj. 2028 · weak−18K
TRENDED = post-2016 conversion drift continues · WEAK = Dem conversion falls to 75% (bad-candidate floor)
⚠ TAKE ACTION
4 things you can do today
01Register or update your registration
If you're not registered Democrat in PA, start there. 2 minutes at the official portal.
PA Voter Services →
02Volunteer in Lawrence County
Lawrence needs 9,067 net new Democratic registrants. That doesn't happen behind a screen.
Find opportunities →
03Contact Lawrence County Dems
The county committee is the unit responsible for this quota. Attend a meeting. Run for Precinct Captain.
Lawrence Dems →
04Convert unaffiliated voters
Lawrence has 5,590 unaffiliated voters (12.5% of the rolls) — already registered, mostly via DMV. They can switch in 2 minutes. They just need a reason.
Party switch form →
This is a 911 county. Show up.
LAWRENCE QUOTA: +9,067 · STATEWIDE: +1,000,000 BY 2028