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2028 INITIATIVE
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Lawrence County

SW · Pennsylvania

Lawrence County is currently classified in ALARM status, reflecting a severe post-2016 registration collapse. Democrats trail by 10,461 voters, compared to a 4,148-voter Democratic advantage in 2016. To put Pennsylvania back on track for 2028, Lawrence County needs 9,067 net new Democratic registrations.

2028 Registration Quota
+9,067
Net new Democratic registrants
Dem Advantage · 2000 → 2026
2000
+12K
PEAK · 2008
+12K
NOW · 2026
−10K
Registration · The Roll
Dem registered20K
Rep registered30K
Unaffiliated Registered5.6K
Dem velocity (per yr)−752
Rep velocity (per yr)+746
Mobility score13.0%
Pop growth (2010→2026)13.8%
Proj. Dem · 202818K
Proj. Rep · 202832K
GAP WIDENING · Reps outpace Dems by +1.5K/yr. At this pace another +3.0K by 2028.
Retention · Voters at Risk
983inactive Democrats
4.98% of Lawrence's Democratic base
For context: 904 inactive Republicans (2.99% of R base)
Inactive voters who don't vote in two consecutive federal elections face cancellation under federal law.
Vote Model · 2024 → 2028
2024 vote margin−16K
Dem conversion (2024)74.0%
Rep conversion (2024)104.0%
Proj. 2028 · trended−15K
Proj. 2028 · weak−18K
TRENDED = post-2016 conversion drift continues · WEAK = Dem conversion falls to 75% (bad-candidate floor)
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