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Lancaster County

Central · Pennsylvania

Lancaster County is currently classified as an Active county, requiring organizing work to hold ground. Democrats trail by 71,455 voters, compared to a 66,193-voter Republican advantage in 2016. To put Pennsylvania back on track for 2028, Lancaster County needs 24,605 net new Democratic registrations.

2028 Registration Quota
+24,605
Net new Democratic registrants
Dem Advantage · 2000 → 2026
2000
−98K
PEAK · 2020
−66K
NOW · 2026
−71K
Registration · The Roll
Dem registered113K
Rep registered184K
Unaffiliated Registered51K
Dem velocity (per yr)+376
Rep velocity (per yr)+1.4K
Mobility score20.3%
Pop growth (2010→2026)26.7%
Proj. Dem · 2028115K
Proj. Rep · 2028192K
GAP WIDENING · Reps outpace Dems by +1.1K/yr. At this pace another +2.1K by 2028.
Retention · Voters at Risk
5,861inactive Democrats
5.21% of Lancaster's Democratic base
For context: 5,517 inactive Republicans (3.00% of R base)

Roughly 1 in 20 of Lancaster's registered Democrats is on the federal cancellation path.

Inactive voters who don't vote in two consecutive federal elections face cancellation under federal law.
Vote Model · 2024 → 2028
2024 vote margin−46K
Dem conversion (2024)104.7%
Rep conversion (2024)88.8%
Proj. 2028 · trended−81K
Proj. 2028 · weak−100K
TRENDED = post-2016 conversion drift continues · WEAK = Dem conversion falls to 75% (bad-candidate floor)
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