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2028 INITIATIVE
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Juniata County

Central · Pennsylvania

Juniata County is currently classified as a Slipping county, with steady erosion of the Democratic registration advantage. Democrats trail by 7,497 voters, compared to a 4,474-voter Republican advantage in 2016. To put Pennsylvania back on track for 2028, Juniata County needs 6,283 net new Democratic registrations.

2028 Registration Quota
+6,283
Net new Democratic registrants
Dem Advantage · 2000 → 2026
2000
−2.3K
PEAK · 2000
−2.3K
NOW · 2026
−7.5K
Registration · The Roll
Dem registered2.5K
Rep registered10K
Unaffiliated Registered1.2K
Dem velocity (per yr)−138
Rep velocity (per yr)+177
Mobility score12.0%
Pop growth (2010→2026)15.2%
Proj. Dem · 20282.3K
Proj. Rep · 202811K
GAP WIDENING · Reps outpace Dems by +315/yr. At this pace another +630 by 2028.
Retention · Voters at Risk
128inactive Democrats
5.03% of Juniata's Democratic base
For context: 212 inactive Republicans (2.11% of R base)
Inactive voters who don't vote in two consecutive federal elections face cancellation under federal law.
Vote Model · 2024 → 2028
2024 vote margin−7.4K
Dem conversion (2024)83.5%
Rep conversion (2024)96.0%
Proj. 2028 · trended−8.3K
Proj. 2028 · weak−8.7K
TRENDED = post-2016 conversion drift continues · WEAK = Dem conversion falls to 75% (bad-candidate floor)
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