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2028 INITIATIVE
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Jefferson County

NW · Pennsylvania

Jefferson County is currently classified in ALARM status, reflecting a severe post-2016 registration collapse. Democrats trail by 14,025 voters, compared to a 7,392-voter Republican advantage in 2016. To put Pennsylvania back on track for 2028, Jefferson County needs 5,632 net new Democratic registrations.

2028 Registration Quota
+5,632
Net new Democratic registrants
Dem Advantage · 2000 → 2026
2000
−2.8K
PEAK · 2000
−2.8K
NOW · 2026
−14K
Registration · The Roll
Dem registered5.4K
Rep registered19K
Unaffiliated Registered2.3K
Dem velocity (per yr)−431
Rep velocity (per yr)+266
Mobility score9.9%
Pop growth (2010→2026)8.2%
Proj. Dem · 20284.5K
Proj. Rep · 202821K
GAP WIDENING · Reps outpace Dems by +697/yr. At this pace another +1.4K by 2028.
Retention · Voters at Risk
236inactive Democrats
4.34% of Jefferson's Democratic base
For context: 505 inactive Republicans (2.60% of R base)
Inactive voters who don't vote in two consecutive federal elections face cancellation under federal law.
Vote Model · 2024 → 2028
2024 vote margin−14K
Dem conversion (2024)81.0%
Rep conversion (2024)92.3%
Proj. 2028 · trended−16K
Proj. 2028 · weak−17K
TRENDED = post-2016 conversion drift continues · WEAK = Dem conversion falls to 75% (bad-candidate floor)
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