The PA
Blueprint
67 COUNTIES
2028 INITIATIVE
DashboardNo PA, No POTUSCountiesResearch
← Back to all 67 counties

Indiana County

SW · Pennsylvania

Indiana County is currently classified in ALARM status, reflecting a severe post-2016 registration collapse. Democrats trail by 14,929 voters, compared to a 3,581-voter Republican advantage in 2016. To put Pennsylvania back on track for 2028, Indiana County needs 8,037 net new Democratic registrations.

2028 Registration Quota
+8,037
Net new Democratic registrants
Dem Advantage · 2000 → 2026
2000
+1.0K
PEAK · 2008
+2.5K
NOW · 2026
−15K
Registration · The Roll
Dem registered14K
Rep registered29K
Unaffiliated Registered4.6K
Dem velocity (per yr)−583
Rep velocity (per yr)+580
Mobility score12.3%
Pop growth (2010→2026)13.3%
Proj. Dem · 202813K
Proj. Rep · 202831K
GAP WIDENING · Reps outpace Dems by +1.2K/yr. At this pace another +2.3K by 2028.
Retention · Voters at Risk
369inactive Democrats
2.64% of Indiana's Democratic base
For context: 355 inactive Republicans (1.23% of R base)
Inactive voters who don't vote in two consecutive federal elections face cancellation under federal law.
Vote Model · 2024 → 2028
2024 vote margin−17K
Dem conversion (2024)82.4%
Rep conversion (2024)98.9%
Proj. 2028 · trended−18K
Proj. 2028 · weak−20K
TRENDED = post-2016 conversion drift continues · WEAK = Dem conversion falls to 75% (bad-candidate floor)
← Back to all 67 counties