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Huntingdon County

Central · Pennsylvania

Huntingdon County is currently classified as a Slipping county, with steady erosion of the Democratic registration advantage. Democrats trail by 12,897 voters, compared to a 8,270-voter Republican advantage in 2016. To put Pennsylvania back on track for 2028, Huntingdon County needs 5,072 net new Democratic registrations.

2028 Registration Quota
+5,072
Net new Democratic registrants
Dem Advantage · 2000 → 2026
2000
−6.2K
PEAK · 2008
−6.1K
NOW · 2026
−13K
Registration · The Roll
Dem registered6.0K
Rep registered19K
Unaffiliated Registered2.4K
Dem velocity (per yr)−295
Rep velocity (per yr)+204
Mobility score8.6%
Pop growth (2010→2026)6.6%
Proj. Dem · 20285.4K
Proj. Rep · 202820K
GAP WIDENING · Reps outpace Dems by +499/yr. At this pace another +998 by 2028.
Retention · Voters at Risk
507inactive Democrats
8.40% of Huntingdon's Democratic base
For context: 625 inactive Republicans (3.30% of R base)
Inactive voters who don't vote in two consecutive federal elections face cancellation under federal law.
Vote Model · 2024 → 2028
2024 vote margin−12K
Dem conversion (2024)82.7%
Rep conversion (2024)91.8%
Proj. 2028 · trended−14K
Proj. 2028 · weak−15K
TRENDED = post-2016 conversion drift continues · WEAK = Dem conversion falls to 75% (bad-candidate floor)
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