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2028 INITIATIVE
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Greene County

SW · Pennsylvania

Greene County is currently classified in ALARM status, reflecting a severe post-2016 registration collapse. Democrats trail by 4,705 voters, compared to a 4,414-voter Democratic advantage in 2016. To put Pennsylvania back on track for 2028, Greene County needs 6,171 net new Democratic registrations.

2028 Registration Quota
+6,171
Net new Democratic registrants
Dem Advantage · 2000 → 2026
2000
+11K
PEAK · 2000
+11K
NOW · 2026
−4.7K
Registration · The Roll
Dem registered7.4K
Rep registered12K
Unaffiliated Registered1.6K
Dem velocity (per yr)−476
Rep velocity (per yr)+429
Mobility score10.4%
Pop growth (2010→2026)9.7%
Proj. Dem · 20286.6K
Proj. Rep · 202813K
GAP WIDENING · Reps outpace Dems by +905/yr. At this pace another +1.8K by 2028.
Retention · Voters at Risk
387inactive Democrats
5.22% of Greene's Democratic base
For context: 413 inactive Republicans (3.41% of R base)
Inactive voters who don't vote in two consecutive federal elections face cancellation under federal law.
Vote Model · 2024 → 2028
2024 vote margin−7.7K
Dem conversion (2024)56.5%
Rep conversion (2024)101.9%
Proj. 2028 · trended−7.1K
Proj. 2028 · weak−8.2K
TRENDED = post-2016 conversion drift continues · WEAK = Dem conversion falls to 75% (bad-candidate floor)
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