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2028 INITIATIVE
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Fulton County

Central · Pennsylvania

Fulton County is currently classified as a Slipping county, with steady erosion of the Democratic registration advantage. Democrats trail by 6,003 voters, compared to a 3,177-voter Republican advantage in 2016. To put Pennsylvania back on track for 2028, Fulton County needs 7,217 net new Democratic registrations.

2028 Registration Quota
+7,217
Net new Democratic registrants
Dem Advantage · 2000 → 2026
2000
−993
PEAK · 2000
−993
NOW · 2026
−6.0K
Registration · The Roll
Dem registered1.5K
Rep registered7.5K
Unaffiliated Registered888
Dem velocity (per yr)−113
Rep velocity (per yr)+169
Mobility score14.2%
Pop growth (2010→2026)19.8%
Proj. Dem · 20281.1K
Proj. Rep · 20287.9K
GAP WIDENING · Reps outpace Dems by +282/yr. At this pace another +564 by 2028.
Retention · Voters at Risk
121inactive Democrats
8.20% of Fulton's Democratic base
For context: 308 inactive Republicans (4.12% of R base)
Inactive voters who don't vote in two consecutive federal elections face cancellation under federal law.
Vote Model · 2024 → 2028
2024 vote margin−5.9K
Dem conversion (2024)73.4%
Rep conversion (2024)96.0%
Proj. 2028 · trended−6.6K
Proj. 2028 · weak−6.8K
TRENDED = post-2016 conversion drift continues · WEAK = Dem conversion falls to 75% (bad-candidate floor)
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