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2028 INITIATIVE
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Franklin County

Central · Pennsylvania

Franklin County is currently classified as a Slipping county, with steady erosion of the Democratic registration advantage. Democrats trail by 40,950 voters, compared to a 29,459-voter Republican advantage in 2016. To put Pennsylvania back on track for 2028, Franklin County needs 13,096 net new Democratic registrations.

2028 Registration Quota
+13,096
Net new Democratic registrants
Dem Advantage · 2000 → 2026
2000
−19K
PEAK · 2000
−19K
NOW · 2026
−41K
Registration · The Roll
Dem registered23K
Rep registered64K
Unaffiliated Registered14K
Dem velocity (per yr)−174
Rep velocity (per yr)+1.1K
Mobility score20.3%
Pop growth (2010→2026)29.6%
Proj. Dem · 202823K
Proj. Rep · 202869K
GAP WIDENING · Reps outpace Dems by +1.3K/yr. At this pace another +2.5K by 2028.
Retention · Voters at Risk
1,815inactive Democrats
7.73% of Franklin's Democratic base
For context: 2,780 inactive Republicans (4.32% of R base)
Inactive voters who don't vote in two consecutive federal elections face cancellation under federal law.
Vote Model · 2024 → 2028
2024 vote margin−36K
Dem conversion (2024)98.0%
Rep conversion (2024)92.0%
Proj. 2028 · trended−45K
Proj. 2028 · weak−49K
TRENDED = post-2016 conversion drift continues · WEAK = Dem conversion falls to 75% (bad-candidate floor)
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