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2028 INITIATIVE
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Forest County

NW · Pennsylvania

Forest County is currently classified as an Active county, requiring organizing work to hold ground. Democrats trail by 1,259 voters, compared to a 481-voter Republican advantage in 2016. To put Pennsylvania back on track for 2028, Forest County needs 5,252 net new Democratic registrations.

2028 Registration Quota
+5,252
Net new Democratic registrants
Dem Advantage · 2000 → 2026
2000
−490
PEAK · 2008
−119
NOW · 2026
−1.3K
Registration · The Roll
Dem registered773
Rep registered2.0K
Unaffiliated Registered267
Dem velocity (per yr)−51
Rep velocity (per yr)+32
Mobility score10.4%
Pop growth (2010→2026)8.1%
Proj. Dem · 2028684
Proj. Rep · 20282.2K
GAP WIDENING · Reps outpace Dems by +83/yr. At this pace another +166 by 2028.
Retention · Voters at Risk
57inactive Democrats
7.37% of Forest's Democratic base
For context: 94 inactive Republicans (4.63% of R base)
Inactive voters who don't vote in two consecutive federal elections face cancellation under federal law.
Vote Model · 2024 → 2028
2024 vote margin−1.2K
Dem conversion (2024)87.3%
Rep conversion (2024)92.6%
Proj. 2028 · trended−1.5K
Proj. 2028 · weak−1.6K
TRENDED = post-2016 conversion drift continues · WEAK = Dem conversion falls to 75% (bad-candidate floor)
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