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2028 INITIATIVE
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Fayette County

SW · Pennsylvania

Fayette County is currently classified in ALARM status, reflecting a severe post-2016 registration collapse. Democrats trail by 11,670 voters, compared to a 20,679-voter Democratic advantage in 2016. To put Pennsylvania back on track for 2028, Fayette County needs 8,266 net new Democratic registrations.

2028 Registration Quota
+8,266
Net new Democratic registrants
Dem Advantage · 2000 → 2026
2000
+42K
PEAK · 2000
+42K
NOW · 2026
−12K
Registration · The Roll
Dem registered30K
Rep registered41K
Unaffiliated Registered6.6K
Dem velocity (per yr)−1.8K
Rep velocity (per yr)+1.4K
Mobility score8.5%
Pop growth (2010→2026)6.1%
Proj. Dem · 202826K
Proj. Rep · 202846K
GAP WIDENING · Reps outpace Dems by +3.2K/yr. At this pace another +6.5K by 2028.
Retention · Voters at Risk
1,461inactive Democrats
4.93% of Fayette's Democratic base
For context: 1,155 inactive Republicans (2.80% of R base)
Inactive voters who don't vote in two consecutive federal elections face cancellation under federal law.
Vote Model · 2024 → 2028
2024 vote margin−24K
Dem conversion (2024)60.7%
Rep conversion (2024)106.0%
Proj. 2028 · trended−20K
Proj. 2028 · weak−25K
TRENDED = post-2016 conversion drift continues · WEAK = Dem conversion falls to 75% (bad-candidate floor)
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