The PA
Blueprint
Blueprint
67 COUNTIES
2028 INITIATIVE
2028 INITIATIVE
Erie County
NW · Pennsylvania
Erie County is currently classified as a Slipping county, with steady erosion of the Democratic registration advantage. Democrats lead by 5,545 voters, compared to a 30,103-voter Democratic advantage in 2016. To put Pennsylvania back on track for 2028, Erie County needs 16,536 net new Democratic registrations.
2028 Registration Quota
+16,536
Net new Democratic registrants
Dem Advantage · 2000 → 2026
2000
+23K
PEAK · 2008
+39K
NOW · 2026
+5.5K
Registration · The Roll
Dem registered76K
Rep registered71K
Unaffiliated Registered21K
Dem velocity (per yr)−2.1K
Rep velocity (per yr)+509
Mobility score12.4%
Pop growth (2010→2026)9.0%
Proj. Dem · 202876K
Proj. Rep · 202875K
GAP WIDENING · Reps outpace Dems by +2.6K/yr. At this pace another +5.1K by 2028.
Retention · Voters at Risk
4,594inactive Democrats
6.01% of Erie's Democratic base
For context: 2,999 inactive Republicans (4.23% of R base)
Inactive voters who don't vote in two consecutive federal elections face cancellation under federal law.
Vote Model · 2024 → 2028
2024 vote margin−1.4K
Dem conversion (2024)82.4%
Rep conversion (2024)94.3%
Proj. 2028 · trended−3.5K
Proj. 2028 · weak−16K
TRENDED = post-2016 conversion drift continues · WEAK = Dem conversion falls to 75% (bad-candidate floor)
⚠ TAKE ACTION
4 things you can do today
01Register or update your registration
If you're not registered Democrat in PA, start there. 2 minutes at the official portal.
PA Voter Services →
02Volunteer in Erie County
Erie needs 16,536 net new Democratic registrants. That doesn't happen behind a screen.
Find opportunities →
03Contact Erie County Dems
The county committee is the unit responsible for this quota. Attend a meeting. Run for Precinct Captain.
Erie Dems →
04Convert unaffiliated voters
Erie has 20,640 unaffiliated voters (14.8% of the rolls) — already registered, mostly via DMV. They can switch in 2 minutes. They just need a reason.
Party switch form →
The slide is not inevitable. Organize now.
ERIE QUOTA: +16,536 · STATEWIDE: +1,000,000 BY 2028