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Elk County

NCentral · Pennsylvania

Elk County is currently classified in ALARM status, reflecting a severe post-2016 registration collapse. Democrats trail by 6,327 voters, compared to a 1,059-voter Democratic advantage in 2016. To put Pennsylvania back on track for 2028, Elk County needs 7,564 net new Democratic registrations.

2028 Registration Quota
+7,564
Net new Democratic registrants
Dem Advantage · 2000 → 2026
2000
+3.1K
PEAK · 2008
+3.9K
NOW · 2026
−6.3K
Registration · The Roll
Dem registered5.8K
Rep registered12K
Unaffiliated Registered1.8K
Dem velocity (per yr)−359
Rep velocity (per yr)+390
Mobility score13.7%
Pop growth (2010→2026)15.8%
Proj. Dem · 20285.0K
Proj. Rep · 202813K
GAP WIDENING · Reps outpace Dems by +749/yr. At this pace another +1.5K by 2028.
Retention · Voters at Risk
219inactive Democrats
3.77% of Elk's Democratic base
For context: 259 inactive Republicans (2.13% of R base)
Inactive voters who don't vote in two consecutive federal elections face cancellation under federal law.
Vote Model · 2024 → 2028
2024 vote margin−8.1K
Dem conversion (2024)72.2%
Rep conversion (2024)103.2%
Proj. 2028 · trended−8.4K
Proj. 2028 · weak−9.3K
TRENDED = post-2016 conversion drift continues · WEAK = Dem conversion falls to 75% (bad-candidate floor)
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