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2028 INITIATIVE
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Dauphin County

Central · Pennsylvania

Dauphin County is currently classified as an Opportunity county, where demographic and mobility patterns favor Democratic growth. Democrats lead by 9,456 voters, compared to a 10,067-voter Democratic advantage in 2016. To put Pennsylvania back on track for 2028, Dauphin County needs 20,870 net new Democratic registrations.

2028 Registration Quota
+20,870
Net new Democratic registrants
Dem Advantage · 2000 → 2026
2000
−24K
PEAK · 2020
+13K
NOW · 2026
+9.5K
Registration · The Roll
Dem registered86K
Rep registered76K
Unaffiliated Registered30K
Dem velocity (per yr)+20
Rep velocity (per yr)+254
Mobility score19.2%
Pop growth (2010→2026)22.5%
Proj. Dem · 202888K
Proj. Rep · 202880K
GAP WIDENING · Reps outpace Dems by +234/yr. At this pace another +468 by 2028.
Retention · Voters at Risk
7,829inactive Democrats
9.14% of Dauphin's Democratic base
For context: 4,428 inactive Republicans (5.81% of R base)

Nearly 1 in 13 of Dauphin's registered Democrats is on the federal cancellation path.

Inactive voters who don't vote in two consecutive federal elections face cancellation under federal law.
Vote Model · 2024 → 2028
2024 vote margin+8.9K
Dem conversion (2024)88.4%
Rep conversion (2024)88.1%
Proj. 2028 · trended+3.4K
Proj. 2028 · weak−11K
TRENDED = post-2016 conversion drift continues · WEAK = Dem conversion falls to 75% (bad-candidate floor)
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