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Cumberland County

Central · Pennsylvania

Cumberland County is currently classified as an Active county, requiring organizing work to hold ground. Democrats trail by 27,232 voters, compared to a 29,607-voter Republican advantage in 2016. To put Pennsylvania back on track for 2028, Cumberland County needs 18,753 net new Democratic registrations.

2028 Registration Quota
+18,753
Net new Democratic registrants
Dem Advantage · 2000 → 2026
2000
−38K
PEAK · 2008
−26K
NOW · 2026
−27K
Registration · The Roll
Dem registered61K
Rep registered88K
Unaffiliated Registered27K
Dem velocity (per yr)+608
Rep velocity (per yr)+569
Mobility score21.5%
Pop growth (2010→2026)30.0%
Proj. Dem · 202865K
Proj. Rep · 202894K
Retention · Voters at Risk
3,610inactive Democrats
5.90% of Cumberland's Democratic base
For context: 3,310 inactive Republicans (3.74% of R base)
Inactive voters who don't vote in two consecutive federal elections face cancellation under federal law.
Vote Model · 2024 → 2028
2024 vote margin−14K
Dem conversion (2024)104.8%
Rep conversion (2024)87.8%
Proj. 2028 · trended−31K
Proj. 2028 · weak−42K
TRENDED = post-2016 conversion drift continues · WEAK = Dem conversion falls to 75% (bad-candidate floor)
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