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2028 INITIATIVE
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Crawford County

NW · Pennsylvania

Crawford County is currently classified in ALARM status, reflecting a severe post-2016 registration collapse. Democrats trail by 17,394 voters, compared to a 8,223-voter Republican advantage in 2016. To put Pennsylvania back on track for 2028, Crawford County needs 8,649 net new Democratic registrations.

2028 Registration Quota
+8,649
Net new Democratic registrants
Dem Advantage · 2000 → 2026
2000
−7.3K
PEAK · 2008
−3.5K
NOW · 2026
−17K
Registration · The Roll
Dem registered14K
Rep registered32K
Unaffiliated Registered4.9K
Dem velocity (per yr)−465
Rep velocity (per yr)+516
Mobility score13.5%
Pop growth (2010→2026)15.8%
Proj. Dem · 202814K
Proj. Rep · 202834K
GAP WIDENING · Reps outpace Dems by +981/yr. At this pace another +2.0K by 2028.
Retention · Voters at Risk
1,015inactive Democrats
7.02% of Crawford's Democratic base
For context: 1,108 inactive Republicans (3.48% of R base)
Inactive voters who don't vote in two consecutive federal elections face cancellation under federal law.
Vote Model · 2024 → 2028
2024 vote margin−17K
Dem conversion (2024)82.5%
Rep conversion (2024)91.1%
Proj. 2028 · trended−20K
Proj. 2028 · weak−23K
TRENDED = post-2016 conversion drift continues · WEAK = Dem conversion falls to 75% (bad-candidate floor)
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