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2028 INITIATIVE
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Columbia County

NE · Pennsylvania

Columbia County is currently classified in ALARM status, reflecting a severe post-2016 registration collapse. Democrats trail by 10,626 voters, compared to a 2,284-voter Republican advantage in 2016. To put Pennsylvania back on track for 2028, Columbia County needs 9,352 net new Democratic registrations.

2028 Registration Quota
+9,352
Net new Democratic registrants
Dem Advantage · 2000 → 2026
2000
+866
PEAK · 2008
+1.5K
NOW · 2026
−11K
Registration · The Roll
Dem registered12K
Rep registered22K
Unaffiliated Registered4.8K
Dem velocity (per yr)−396
Rep velocity (per yr)+459
Mobility score15.7%
Pop growth (2010→2026)17.8%
Proj. Dem · 202811K
Proj. Rep · 202824K
GAP WIDENING · Reps outpace Dems by +855/yr. At this pace another +1.7K by 2028.
Retention · Voters at Risk
646inactive Democrats
5.47% of Columbia's Democratic base
For context: 615 inactive Republicans (2.74% of R base)
Inactive voters who don't vote in two consecutive federal elections face cancellation under federal law.
Vote Model · 2024 → 2028
2024 vote margin−10K
Dem conversion (2024)88.8%
Rep conversion (2024)93.9%
Proj. 2028 · trended−13K
Proj. 2028 · weak−15K
TRENDED = post-2016 conversion drift continues · WEAK = Dem conversion falls to 75% (bad-candidate floor)
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