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2028 INITIATIVE
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Clinton County

NCentral · Pennsylvania

Clinton County is currently classified in ALARM status, reflecting a severe post-2016 registration collapse. Democrats trail by 7,255 voters, compared to a 1,033-voter Republican advantage in 2016. To put Pennsylvania back on track for 2028, Clinton County needs 7,941 net new Democratic registrations.

2028 Registration Quota
+7,941
Net new Democratic registrants
Dem Advantage · 2000 → 2026
2000
−597
PEAK · 2008
+1.2K
NOW · 2026
−7.3K
Registration · The Roll
Dem registered6.1K
Rep registered13K
Unaffiliated Registered2.4K
Dem velocity (per yr)−295
Rep velocity (per yr)+353
Mobility score14.4%
Pop growth (2010→2026)17.2%
Proj. Dem · 20285.5K
Proj. Rep · 202815K
GAP WIDENING · Reps outpace Dems by +648/yr. At this pace another +1.3K by 2028.
Retention · Voters at Risk
277inactive Democrats
4.57% of Clinton's Democratic base
For context: 382 inactive Republicans (2.87% of R base)
Inactive voters who don't vote in two consecutive federal elections face cancellation under federal law.
Vote Model · 2024 → 2028
2024 vote margin−7.6K
Dem conversion (2024)83.2%
Rep conversion (2024)96.4%
Proj. 2028 · trended−9.1K
Proj. 2028 · weak−10K
TRENDED = post-2016 conversion drift continues · WEAK = Dem conversion falls to 75% (bad-candidate floor)
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