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2028 INITIATIVE
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Clarion County

NW · Pennsylvania

Clarion County is currently classified in ALARM status, reflecting a severe post-2016 registration collapse. Democrats trail by 10,500 voters, compared to a 4,839-voter Republican advantage in 2016. To put Pennsylvania back on track for 2028, Clarion County needs 7,054 net new Democratic registrations.

2028 Registration Quota
+7,054
Net new Democratic registrants
Dem Advantage · 2000 → 2026
2000
−2.0K
PEAK · 2000
−2.0K
NOW · 2026
−11K
Registration · The Roll
Dem registered5.1K
Rep registered16K
Unaffiliated Registered2.1K
Dem velocity (per yr)−280
Rep velocity (per yr)+302
Mobility score12.8%
Pop growth (2010→2026)14.5%
Proj. Dem · 20284.8K
Proj. Rep · 202817K
GAP WIDENING · Reps outpace Dems by +582/yr. At this pace another +1.2K by 2028.
Retention · Voters at Risk
346inactive Democrats
6.83% of Clarion's Democratic base
For context: 621 inactive Republicans (3.99% of R base)
Inactive voters who don't vote in two consecutive federal elections face cancellation under federal law.
Vote Model · 2024 → 2028
2024 vote margin−10K
Dem conversion (2024)80.3%
Rep conversion (2024)94.5%
Proj. 2028 · trended−12K
Proj. 2028 · weak−13K
TRENDED = post-2016 conversion drift continues · WEAK = Dem conversion falls to 75% (bad-candidate floor)
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