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2028 INITIATIVE
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Chester County

SE · Pennsylvania

Chester County is currently classified as an Opportunity county, where demographic and mobility patterns favor Democratic growth. Democrats lead by 8,281 voters, compared to a 18,468-voter Republican advantage in 2016. To put Pennsylvania back on track for 2028, Chester County needs 32,331 net new Democratic registrations.

2028 Registration Quota
+32,331
Net new Democratic registrants
Dem Advantage · 2000 → 2026
2000
−81K
PEAK · 2024
+6.0K
NOW · 2026
+8.3K
Registration · The Roll
Dem registered160K
Rep registered152K
Unaffiliated Registered58K
Dem velocity (per yr)+2.3K
Rep velocity (per yr)+115
Mobility score23.3%
Pop growth (2010→2026)31.4%
Proj. Dem · 2028170K
Proj. Rep · 2028157K
Retention · Voters at Risk
7,667inactive Democrats
4.78% of Chester's Democratic base
For context: 5,283 inactive Republicans (3.47% of R base)
Inactive voters who don't vote in two consecutive federal elections face cancellation under federal law.
Vote Model · 2024 → 2028
2024 vote margin+47K
Dem conversion (2024)112.9%
Rep conversion (2024)87.3%
Proj. 2028 · trended+3.0K
Proj. 2028 · weak−25K
TRENDED = post-2016 conversion drift continues · WEAK = Dem conversion falls to 75% (bad-candidate floor)
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