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2028 INITIATIVE
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Carbon County

NE · Pennsylvania

Carbon County is currently classified as an Opportunity county, where demographic and mobility patterns favor Democratic growth. Democrats trail by 9,787 voters, compared to a 704-voter Democratic advantage in 2016. To put Pennsylvania back on track for 2028, Carbon County needs 11,169 net new Democratic registrations.

2028 Registration Quota
+11,169
Net new Democratic registrants
Dem Advantage · 2000 → 2026
2000
+3.1K
PEAK · 2008
+5.3K
NOW · 2026
−9.8K
Registration · The Roll
Dem registered14K
Rep registered24K
Unaffiliated Registered5.7K
Dem velocity (per yr)−448
Rep velocity (per yr)+633
Mobility score18.8%
Pop growth (2010→2026)24.7%
Proj. Dem · 202813K
Proj. Rep · 202826K
GAP WIDENING · Reps outpace Dems by +1.1K/yr. At this pace another +2.2K by 2028.
Retention · Voters at Risk
745inactive Democrats
5.30% of Carbon's Democratic base
For context: 845 inactive Republicans (3.54% of R base)
Inactive voters who don't vote in two consecutive federal elections face cancellation under federal law.
Vote Model · 2024 → 2028
2024 vote margin−12K
Dem conversion (2024)77.0%
Rep conversion (2024)99.7%
Proj. 2028 · trended−13K
Proj. 2028 · weak−15K
TRENDED = post-2016 conversion drift continues · WEAK = Dem conversion falls to 75% (bad-candidate floor)
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