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Cameron County

NCentral · Pennsylvania

Cameron County is currently classified as an Active county, requiring organizing work to hold ground. Democrats trail by 1,173 voters, compared to a 441-voter Republican advantage in 2016. To put Pennsylvania back on track for 2028, Cameron County needs 4,992 net new Democratic registrations.

2028 Registration Quota
+4,992
Net new Democratic registrants
Dem Advantage · 2000 → 2026
2000
−224
PEAK · 2000
−224
NOW · 2026
−1.2K
Registration · The Roll
Dem registered665
Rep registered1.8K
Unaffiliated Registered251
Dem velocity (per yr)−52
Rep velocity (per yr)+27
Mobility score9.9%
Pop growth (2010→2026)5.3%
Proj. Dem · 2028560
Proj. Rep · 20282.0K
GAP WIDENING · Reps outpace Dems by +79/yr. At this pace another +158 by 2028.
Retention · Voters at Risk
28inactive Democrats
4.21% of Cameron's Democratic base
For context: 53 inactive Republicans (2.88% of R base)
Inactive voters who don't vote in two consecutive federal elections face cancellation under federal law.
Vote Model · 2024 → 2028
2024 vote margin−1.1K
Dem conversion (2024)73.8%
Rep conversion (2024)86.7%
Proj. 2028 · trended−1.4K
Proj. 2028 · weak−1.5K
TRENDED = post-2016 conversion drift continues · WEAK = Dem conversion falls to 75% (bad-candidate floor)
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