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Cambria County

SW · Pennsylvania

Cambria County is currently classified in ALARM status, reflecting a severe post-2016 registration collapse. Democrats trail by 17,034 voters, compared to a 12,622-voter Democratic advantage in 2016. To put Pennsylvania back on track for 2028, Cambria County needs 9,335 net new Democratic registrations.

2028 Registration Quota
+9,335
Net new Democratic registrants
Dem Advantage · 2000 → 2026
2000
+28K
PEAK · 2008
+29K
NOW · 2026
−17K
Registration · The Roll
Dem registered29K
Rep registered47K
Unaffiliated Registered7.8K
Dem velocity (per yr)−1.5K
Rep velocity (per yr)+1.5K
Mobility score10.8%
Pop growth (2010→2026)11.4%
Proj. Dem · 202827K
Proj. Rep · 202852K
GAP WIDENING · Reps outpace Dems by +3.0K/yr. At this pace another +6.1K by 2028.
Retention · Voters at Risk
1,151inactive Democrats
3.90% of Cambria's Democratic base
For context: 1,079 inactive Republicans (2.32% of R base)
Inactive voters who don't vote in two consecutive federal elections face cancellation under federal law.
Vote Model · 2024 → 2028
2024 vote margin−28K
Dem conversion (2024)66.8%
Rep conversion (2024)105.4%
Proj. 2028 · trended−26K
Proj. 2028 · weak−30K
TRENDED = post-2016 conversion drift continues · WEAK = Dem conversion falls to 75% (bad-candidate floor)
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