The PA
Blueprint
Blueprint
67 COUNTIES
2028 INITIATIVE
2028 INITIATIVE
Butler County
SW · Pennsylvania
Butler County is currently classified as a Slipping county, with steady erosion of the Democratic registration advantage. Democrats trail by 43,771 voters, compared to a 27,331-voter Republican advantage in 2016. To put Pennsylvania back on track for 2028, Butler County needs 14,265 net new Democratic registrations.
2028 Registration Quota
+14,265
Net new Democratic registrants
Dem Advantage · 2000 → 2026
2000
−9.0K
PEAK · 2000
−9.0K
NOW · 2026
−44K
Registration · The Roll
Dem registered39K
Rep registered83K
Unaffiliated Registered16K
Dem velocity (per yr)−280
Rep velocity (per yr)+1.5K
Mobility score18.3%
Pop growth (2010→2026)26.9%
Proj. Dem · 202840K
Proj. Rep · 202889K
GAP WIDENING · Reps outpace Dems by +1.7K/yr. At this pace another +3.5K by 2028.
Retention · Voters at Risk
1,749inactive Democrats
4.47% of Butler's Democratic base
For context: 2,543 inactive Republicans (3.07% of R base)
Inactive voters who don't vote in two consecutive federal elections face cancellation under federal law.
Vote Model · 2024 → 2028
2024 vote margin−39K
Dem conversion (2024)100.4%
Rep conversion (2024)95.1%
Proj. 2028 · trended−50K
Proj. 2028 · weak−56K
TRENDED = post-2016 conversion drift continues · WEAK = Dem conversion falls to 75% (bad-candidate floor)
⚠ TAKE ACTION
4 things you can do today
01Register or update your registration
If you're not registered Democrat in PA, start there. 2 minutes at the official portal.
PA Voter Services →
02Volunteer in Butler County
Butler needs 14,265 net new Democratic registrants. That doesn't happen behind a screen.
Find opportunities →
03Contact Butler County Dems
The county committee is the unit responsible for this quota. Attend a meeting. Run for Precinct Captain.
Butler Dems →
04Convert unaffiliated voters
Butler has 16,140 unaffiliated voters (12.6% of the rolls) — already registered, mostly via DMV. They can switch in 2 minutes. They just need a reason.
Party switch form →
The slide is not inevitable. Organize now.
BUTLER QUOTA: +14,265 · STATEWIDE: +1,000,000 BY 2028